Uncertainty Surrounds Iran War Objectives As Political Tradeoff Is At Stake

Following the resumption of conflict in the Iran war, Washington’s final objective has been called into question. In an article which appeared on the Associated Press Thursday, the uncertainty of the goals was discussed.

“The confusion and uncertainty in Trump’s mixed messaging and his approval of back-to-back military strikes leave major questions about what comes next in the conflict, just weeks after difficult diplomacy to reach even an initial deal between the longtime adversaries,” The AP said.

After multiple months of war against the Islamic Republic, President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart signed a Memorandum of Understanding on June 17 – establishing a ceasefire and opening dialogue to codify the end to the war.

While talks were initiated, they quickly fell apart after a series of Iranian strikes on vessels exiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The Islamic Republic struck a Singapore-flagged commercial vessel June 25 for failing to abide by its approved exit route from the Strait. Three more tanker ships were struck by Iran on Tuesday, bringing an end to the negotiations.

Tehran’s reasoning for attacking the ships stemmed from the vessels taking a U.S.-approved southernly route out of the Strait instead of the Iranian-approved northerly route. Iran wants ships to exit Hormuz along their own coast to better justify collection of a toll.

The Trump administration has been opposed to Iran collecting a toll, but the issue appears to be important enough to Iran to justify striking ships that fail to abide by its approved Hormuz route.

Following Tuesday’s attack on the three vessels, the U.S. resumed strikes against Iranian targets. But the final objective of the reignited conflict remains in question.

“The whipsawing rhetoric [of the Trump administration] could be a strategy to increase the pressure on Tehran to stop attacking ships transporting oil and natural gas in the Strait of Hormuz and bend to U.S. demands on its nuclear program — something Trump has tried before,” The AP said.

Resuming conflict with Iran has a clear downside to the White House – a closed Strait drives up energy costs, which in turn drives up the cost of all goods and services. The war is not happening in a vacuum, it is taking place during a cost of living crisis in the U.S. which is destroying public sentiment in the ruling Republican Party.

“Whether it is a negotiation tactic or a signal of an escalation in fighting, mediators are scrambling to save the interim deal and the actions risk further inflaming tensions — which could spell problems for Republicans in November’s midterm elections if gas prices stay high,” The AP said.

There are attempts to revive the peace process.

“A regional intelligence official involved in the mediation efforts said the conflict had reached a critical stage as mutual mistrust rises. But high-level communications are happening around the clock to salvage the ceasefire, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the delicate behind-the-scenes negotiations,” The AP said.

According to some, the war going hot again is part of the peace process.

While a dystopian phrase from the book ‘1984‘ may come to mine, that “war is peace,” it appears the recent resumption of hostilities may be a tactic thought to strengthen the negotiating position.

The AP reported:

Michael Eisenstadt, a former U.S. military analyst who now directs the Military and Security Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that “we’re still in negotiating mode, no matter what the president says.” 

“This is part of negotiating, and declaring that the MOU is over is part of the negotiation as well,” Eisenstadt said, referring to the memorandum of understanding that the ceasefire was built on. 

Trump, though, has been explicit in public comments, saying he’s lost interest in preserving the ceasefire: “I think it’s over.” 

“We can play games, but I’m not sure I want to make a deal,” he said during the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, adding that the U.S. military might “just finish the job.”

Even if Washington’s negotiating position in the Iran talks is enhanced, it comes at the tradeoff of American public sentiment going into a midterm election. To geopolitically win in Iran may mean to politically lose at home.

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